World Population Projections 2019

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By Moderator June 19, 2019 11:13

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Some of the key takeaways from ‘The World Population Prospects 2019’ published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.:

    1. Projected world population by 2050:

      1. The global population is projected to increase by another 2 billion people by 2050, from 7.7 billion in 2019 to 9.7 billion. The countries expected to show the biggest increase are India, Nigeria and Pakistan.
      2. The Central and the Southern Asia region, of which India is a part, is expected to see a 25% increase in population between now and 2050.
      3. The rate of population growth is the highest in sub-Saharan Africa, where the fertility rate stand at 4.6 births per woman over a lifetime. The region is expected to double its population by mid-century.
      4. Nigeria is expected to add 200 million people over the next three decades and overtake the U.S. to become the third most populous nation.

  1. Fall in the overall growth of population: The average number of births per woman globally, from 3.2 in 1990, fell to 2.5 by 2019 and is projected to fall further to 2.2 births by 2050. To avoid a decline in a national population, a fertility level of 2.1 births per woman is necessary (in the absence of immigration).
  2. Dwindling populations: The populations of 55 countries are projected to decrease by 1% or more between 2019 and 2050 because of sustained low levels of fertility, and, in some places, high rates of emigration.
    • The largest relative reductions in population size over that period, with losses of around 20% or more, are expected in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, and the Wallis and Futuna Islands.

Impact of Migration and climate change on Population

  • Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines are seeing the largest migratory outflows resulting from the demand for migrant workers;
  • Myanmar, Syria, and Venezuela are the countries where the largest numbers are leaving because of insecurity or conflict
  1. A rise in the elderly population:
    1. In 2018, for the first time, persons aged 65 years or over worldwide outnumbered children under age five.
    2. Projections indicate that by 2050, there will be more than twice as many persons above 65 as children under five.
    3. By 2050, the number of persons aged 65 or over will also surpass the number of adolescents and youth aged 15-24.
    4. By 2050, the number of people over 80 is expected to triple to 426 million.
    5. This trend has also led to falling proportions of working-age people to support an aging population. By 2050, almost 50 countries are expected to have less than two working-age people to support every person above 65.

“These low values underscore the potential impact of population aging on the labor market and economic performance as well as the financial pressures that many countries will face in the coming decades as they seek to build and maintain public systems of health care, pensions and social protection for older persons,”

For India

  1. In India, children under age five still outnumber the over-65 population, who are projected to overtake the under-five group between 2025 and 2030.
  2. By 2050, persons over age 65 will make up about one-seventh of India’s population. By then, the 15-24 group in India (13.8%), too, will outnumber the over-65 group (13.6%).
  3. Children under age five are projected to constitute less than 6% of India’s population in 2050, as compared to 7% globally.
  1. Life expectancy: overall life expectancy will increase from 64.2 years in 1990 to 77.1 years in 2050. However, life expectancy in poorer countries is projected to continue to lag behind.
  • Today, the average lifespan of a baby born in one of the least developed countries will be some 7 years shorter than one born in a developed country, the report said.
  • The main reasons cited in the report are a high child and maternal mortality rates, conflict and insecurity, and the continuing impact of the HIV epidemic.

Read Also: By 2027, India population to cross China’s: UN

  1. Sex ratio: Males are projected to continue to outnumber females until the end of the century, but the gap will close.
  2. On most populated country: The report stated that in 2019, India has an estimated population of 1.37 billion and China 1.43 billion and by 2027, India’s population is projected to surpass China’s. According to estimates, India is expected to add 273 million people by 2050 and will remain the most populated until the end of the century.
    1. Following the India-China re-ordering in 2027, the ranking of the five largest countries is projected to remain the same until the end of the century.
    2. India is expected to remain the world’s most populous country with nearly 1.5 billion inhabitants, followed by China at 1.1 billion, Nigeria with 733 million, the United States with 434 million, and Pakistan with an estimated population of 403 million.
    3. However, while India may have the highest absolute increase in numbers, its rate of growth is slowing.

However, the population of India in 2019 is 1.37 billion, which is 2.3 million (0.2%) less than the previous estimate from the 2017 revision. This decrease results from

  • Lower levels of total fertility rate following the availability of new estimates from the 2015-2016 National Fertility and Health Survey (NFHS-4) and from the Sample Registration System (SRS) for 2016, and
  • Increased estimates of out-migration.

Recent Initiative was taken by the government to curb the population

  1. Mission Parivar Vikas: Union health ministry launched mission Parivar Vikas to increase access to contraceptives and Family Planning services in 146 high fertility districts. The current basket of choice has been expanded to include the new contraceptives viz. Injectable contraceptive, Centchroman and Progesterone Only Pills (POP).
  2. Sterilization Compensation Scheme: The sterilization compensation scheme has been enhanced in 11 high focus states (8 Empowered Action Group (EAG), Assam, Gujarat, Haryana). The government has been looking for the private sector to help in the cause.

“As India is poised to soon become the world’s most populous country, we need to invest more in health, education and women empowerment as they are the key contributors both to slowing down population growth and accelerating development”

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Moderator
By Moderator June 19, 2019 11:13