Q) With the US moving ahead with its plan to make an exit from Afghanistan, there are concerns of a set of issues arising from it for India as well as South Asia to a great extent. Comment.
Why this Question?
Issue of current importance
Key demand of the Question
Explain how the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and rise of the Taliban can lead to larger security issues.
Comment- here we have to express our knowledge and understanding of the issue and form an overall opinion thereupon.
Start with giving an overall view of the US’s plan to make an exit from Afghanistan.
In the first part, mention the issues that can penetrate after the US's exit. Focus on implications in India and South Asia.
In the next part, highlight the approach that needs to be adopted in the future to deal with such issues.
Conclude with a balanced view of the issues and the larger role that the world can play in mediating peace in Afghanistan.
The new US President Biden proposed a plan for Afghanistan under which the troops will withdraw from the country by September 11, 2021, even without any power-sharing deal between the warring parties. An essential element of Mr. Biden’s plan is to make Mr. Ghani agree to dissolve his government and set up a new governing system that would include the Taliban.
Implications of the US exit from Afghanistan
- USA’ s exit would leave Beijing vulnerable to its spillover effects particularly in the restive Xinjiang province. That is why China has remained invested in all major regional Afghan-centric negotiations.
- India rightly fears a Taliban-dominated regime in Kabul might allow Pakistan to dictate Afghanistan’s India policy and New Delhi would remain a peripheral player with no leverage with the Taliban.
- For Pakistan, American military presence in Afghanistan keeps the US utterly dependent on Pakistan for geographic access and operational support. And that dependence in turn could be mobilised against India.
- As America steps back from the Middle East, most regional actors would either need alternate patrons or reduce tensions with their neighbours and take steps to do so.
What should be done in the future?
- An independent, sovereign, democratic, pluralistic and inclusive Afghanistan is crucial for peace and stability in the region.
- In order to ensure the same, the Afghan peace process should be Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled.
- Also, there is a need for the global community to fight against the global concern of terrorism. In this context, it high time to adopt the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (proposed by India at UN in 1996).
- Though the new initiative by the USA is a good step, the road ahead will not be easy.
America’s exit from Afghanistan will trigger a geopolitical flux in the region. In such situations, achieving lasting peace in Afghanistan will require patience and compromise among all parties. Therefore, even after the US exit from Afghanistan all the major international players and those with keen influence on Afghanistan need to come together to ensure the development of the region in a peaceful manner. While the September 11 exit would bring the U.S.’s “forever war” to an end, it is unlikely to result in peace if Afghan stakeholders show their utter inability to take the process forward.