• The Ecological Threat Register (ETR) covers around 157 independent states and territories. 
  • Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the ETR measures ecological threats that countries are currently facing and provides projections to 2050. 
  • The ETR is unique in that it combines measures of resilience with the most comprehensive ecological data available to shed light on the countries least likely to cope with extreme ecological shocks, now and into the future.
  • The IEP's Positive Peace framework is used to identify areas where resilience is unlikely to be strong enough to adapt or cope with these future shocks. 
  • The ETR clusters threats into two major domains: resource scarcity and natural disasters. 
  • The resource scarcity domain includes food insecurity, water scarcity and high population growth. 
  • The natural disaster domain measures the threat of floods, droughts, cyclones, sea level rise and rising temperatures.

The ETR identifies three clusters of ecological hotspots, which are particularly susceptible to collapse:

  • The Sahel-Horn belt of Africa, from Mauritania to Somalia;
  • The Southern African belt, from Angola to Madagascar;
  • The Middle East and Central Asian belt, from Syria to Pakistan.
  • Within these hotspots the most fragile countries will include Iran, Mozambique, Madagascar, Pakistan and Kenya.